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    Estimating and validating long run probability of default

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    [2] Blaschke, W., Jones, M., Majnoni, G., and Peria, S. Stress Testing of Financial Systems: An Overview of Issues, Methodologies, and FSAP Experiences, IMF working paper, June 2001 [3] Breiman, L. (2007) Common Failings: How Corporate Defaults are Correlated. The Journal of Credit Risk, Volume 4 (2), Summer 2008 [10] Gordy, M., Heitfield, E. Estimating default correlations from short panels of credit rating performance data. Econometric Models and Economic Forecasts, 4th Edition, Irwin/Mc Graw-Hill [16] Rosen, D., Saunders, D. Analytical methods for hedging systematic credit risk with linear factor portfolios.

    Introduction This paper is dedicated to ultra-low default portfolios.

    Ultra-low default portfolio is the portfolio for which we haven’t got enough historical defaults to estimate discriminatory power of the ranking model (e.g.

    However, some of the relevant parameters recommended by regulatory bodies are often used interchangeably and incorrectly or are miscalculated, due to few references to evaluate some of the terms as well as wrong application of the mathematical and statistical approaches used in their estimation.

    These mistakes have led to misinterpretation and ambiguity in the terminology and in some instances to wrong scientific conclusions.

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